{"id":12706,"date":"2021-09-30T11:30:05","date_gmt":"2021-09-30T09:30:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/?page_id=12706"},"modified":"2021-10-02T17:16:40","modified_gmt":"2021-10-02T15:16:40","slug":"east-games-united-2-2-3-3-2-2-4-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/?page_id=12706","title":{"rendered":"Symulacje pandemii &#8211; artyku\u0142 w Nature &#8211; udzia\u0142 dr. Jana Kisielewskiego"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>W czasopi\u015bmie Nature Communications <\/strong>ukaza\u0142 si\u0119 artyku\u0142 podsumowuj\u0105cy prac\u0119 polskich i niemieckich zespo\u0142\u00f3w modeluj\u0105cych przebieg pandemii COVID-19 podczas tzw. drugiej fali. Do jednej z tych grup nale\u017cy pracownik Wydzia\u0142u Fizyki Uniwersytetu w Bia\u0142ymstoku &#8211; dr Jan Kisielewski.<\/p>\n<p>Prognozy dotycz\u0105ce epidemii regularnie opracowuje kilkana\u015bcie niezale\u017cnych grup badaczy z Polski i Niemiec. Jedn\u0105 z nich jest Interdyscyplinarne Centrum Modelowania Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego. To w\u0142a\u015bnie w jego pracach uczestniczy dr Jan Kisielewski.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-12707\" src=\"http:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/dr-jan-kisielewski-baner-615595c3d1c6b-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/dr-jan-kisielewski-baner-615595c3d1c6b-300x199.jpg 300w, https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/dr-jan-kisielewski-baner-615595c3d1c6b-150x100.jpg 150w, https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/dr-jan-kisielewski-baner-615595c3d1c6b-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/dr-jan-kisielewski-baner-615595c3d1c6b-752x500.jpg 752w, https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/dr-jan-kisielewski-baner-615595c3d1c6b.jpg 990w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Zespo\u0142y stosuj\u0105 do modelowania r\u00f3\u017cn\u0105 metodologi\u0119. Publikacja w Nature analizuje wyniki symulacji i sprawdzalno\u015b\u0107 prognoz w czasie &#8220;drugiej fali&#8221; pandemii, na jesieni 2020 roku.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211;&nbsp;<em>Prognozy dotyczy\u0142y liczby nowych zaka\u017ce\u0144 i liczby zgon\u00f3w, i by\u0142y weryfikowane w horyzoncie jedno- i dwutygodniowym. Niejednorodno\u015b\u0107 prognoz poszczeg\u00f3lnych zespo\u0142\u00f3w by\u0142a znaczna, zar\u00f3wno pod wzgl\u0119dem przewidywanych warto\u015bci, jak ich rozpi\u0119to\u015bci. Okazuje si\u0119 jednak, \u017ce po\u0142\u0105czenie wielu modeli pozwala poprawi\u0107 wiarygodno\u015b\u0107 wynik\u00f3w<\/em> \u2013 komentuje dr Jan Kisielewski. <a href=\"https:\/\/uwb.edu.pl\/nowosci\/aktualnosci\/symulacje-pandemii-opracowane-z-udzialem-fizyka-z-uwb-opisane-w-nature\/0d3f6204\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ci\u0105g dalszy &#8211; kliknij!<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">(c) <a href=\"https:\/\/uwb.edu.pl\/nowosci\/aktualnosci\/symulacje-pandemii-opracowane-z-udzialem-fizyka-z-uwb-opisane-w-nature\/0d3f6204\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Centrala UwB<\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>W czasopi\u015bmie Nature Communications ukaza\u0142 si\u0119 artyku\u0142 podsumowuj\u0105cy prac\u0119 polskich i niemieckich zespo\u0142\u00f3w modeluj\u0105cych przebieg pandemii COVID-19 podczas tzw. drugiej fali. Do jednej z tych grup nale\u017cy pracownik Wydzia\u0142u Fizyki <a href=\"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/?page_id=12706\" class=\"more-link\">[&hellip;]<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":12707,"parent":2744,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"Layout":"1c","footnotes":""},"categories":[131,35],"tags":[224,222,230,232,226,228,234],"class_list":["entry","author-gawryl","post-12706","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","category-galeria_foto","category-popularyzacja_pl","tag-eksperyment","tag-epicentrum","tag-gry","tag-komputer","tag-pokazy","tag-prezentacja","tag-robot"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/P7nvcn-3iW","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12706"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12706\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12708,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/12706\/revisions\/12708"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/2744"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/physics.uwb.edu.pl\/wf\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}